An NFL team makes the jump from worst to first in its division almost every season.
Last year it was the Jaguars, who went from the worst record in the NFL in back-to-back seasons to the best in the AFC South. The Bengals had the first overall pick after finishing last in 2020, then took home the AFC North title in 2021. And the Commanders (at the time, the Washington Football Team) finished first in the NFC East in 2020 — albeit with a losing record — on the heels of a fourth-place finish the year before.
All three of those teams took the league by surprise and rewarded bullish bettors. Jacksonville owned the third-best odds and Cincinnati and Washington both had the longest odds to win their respective divisions.
The three most likely candidates to go from worst to first in 2023 do not offer odds as long as those three sleepers did, but there’s still value to be had in backing one or more of these three teams to execute a quick turnaround.
Odds to win AFC East: +225 (second)
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
The biggest move this offseason wasn’t much of a surprise by the time it finally happened. Still, Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets could be just what they need to end a 12-year playoff drought and perhaps take home their first division title since 2002.
New York finished fifth in defensive DVOA last season and was one of four teams that allowed fewer than 20 points per game. Rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams both emerged as first-team All-Pros for a unit that was tough to run on and even harder to pass against. But the advantage that defense presented was negated by an offense that finished 26th in DVOA and 29th in scoring average.
Enter Rodgers, a four-time MVP who’s historically turnover averse and decidedly not Zach Wilson. Rodgers is, however, turning 40 in December, which is why the play of the offensive line will be so important in his 19th season. The skill-position players are a step up from the Green Bay group: Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and former Packer Allen Lazard are the starting receivers and the dynamic Breece Hall is at running back, though he’s still recovering from an ACL tear.
There’s little question whether the Jets will be better in 2023; it’s more a matter of just how they’ll stack up in the AFC. In their division alone, they have to contend with the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots. It’ll take good health, solid offensive line play and likely another top-five defense for New York to return to the mountaintop of the AFC East. That’s a lot to ask for, but this team’s fortunes have to turn around eventually, right?
Odds to Win NFC South: +225 (second)
2022 Record: 7–10
2023 Win Total: 8.5
It was a busy offseason for the Falcons, who dedicated a ton of resources to improving their defense and used their first-round pick to bolster their biggest strength: running the football. Atlanta added running back Bijan Robinson to an offense that finished third in rushing DVOA last season. Despite what the depth chart says, Robinson headlines a running back room that includes Tyler Allgeier, who ran for 1,000 yards as a rookie, and Cordarrelle Patterson, all of whom will reap the rewards of running behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
Robinson was the third straight skill-position player the front office drafted in the top 10, joining wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. That talented trio should help elevate quarterback Desmond Ridder, a third-rounder who made just four starts as a rookie. Marcus Mariota’s shortcomings as a passer held the offense back in 2022 — better play from Ridder would be a boon for this unit.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons plucked defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen from the Saints and signed linebacker Kaden Ellis and defensive tackle David Onyemata away from their division rival for good measure. Throw in safety Jessie Bates III, outside linebacker Bud Dupree, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Jeff Okudah and this defense should at least be better at getting after opposing quarterbacks even if it’s still one of the NFL’s weaker units.
Atlanta’s case for worst to first has just as much to do with its own improvements as it does with the state of its division. Remember, the Buccaneers won the NFC South a year ago with an 9-0 record — and now must move on without Tom Brady. Though the Falcons may have finished last, they were also only a game out of first. The Saints are easily their toughest competition — beat them out and there could be a home playoff game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium come January.
Odds to win NFC North: +333 (third)
2022 Record: 3–14
2023 Win Total: 7.5
If the Rodgers deal was the defining move of the offseason, the Bears trading away the No. 1 pick is a close second. It not only affirmed Chicago’s commitment to quarterback Justin Fields, who certainly showed flashes during his sophomore season, but it also allowed the front office to build around him. Receiver DJ Moore came over from Carolina in the trade and the team added offensive tackle Darnell Wright in the first round.
There wasn’t much that the Bears excelled at in 2022. They finished 25th in DVOA on offense and dead last on defense. Chicago ran at a higher clip than any other team in the NFL and led the league in rushing yards as a result, but that only took the team so far. Upgrades on both sides of the ball were necessary and the front office shelled out big-money contracts to linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds and further invested along the offensive line by bringing in guard Nate Davis.
Of course, any appreciable improvement starts with Fields, who ran for over 1,100 yards last season but graded out as one of the worst passers in football. He now has an improved cast of skill-position players around him with Moore joining Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool in the receiver room, Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson at running back and Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan at tight end.
If the Lions don’t deliver on their offseason hype train, perhaps the Bears could be the beneficiaries. Plenty is unknown in the NFC North after Rodgers’s departure — Jordan Love is unproven and the Vikings are expected to regress. Chicago is the wild card that could potentially spoil Detroit’s coming out party.
The Real Long Shots
While the Jets, Falcons and Bears have the best chance to go worst to first, the other five last-place finishers from 2022 have much longer odds. Here are those odds:
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (+350)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (+500)
AFC South: Houston Texans (+750)
NFC East: Washington Commanders (+1000)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (+2000)
