Sad as it is to say, the conclusion of Saturday’s games meant we have reached the final weekend of the college football regular season.
Go ahead and pour one out for an incredible season if you want while chowing down this Thanksgiving, but we’re not anywhere close to determining who will also keep playing during conference championship weekend or in the College Football Playoff.
Factoring in all the results of Week 13 and looking ahead to the next set of games, here’s what’s at stake in each conference going into the final weekend.
ACC
Leading into this Saturday, even the league office headlined its notes previewing games as “ACC Chaos Continues.” And for one more week, it sure will.
The amount of tiebreakers needed for this league is if there winds up being a need for a two-loss team. The simplest scenario: Should Virginia beat Virginia Tech and SMU beat Cal next week, the Mustangs and Cavaliers would meet in Charlotte for the ACC championship (and resulting CFP bid).
If either of those two teams lose, well … let’s break out the decimal points because opponent winning percentage would come into play and that wouldn’t be known until the final game next Saturday night.
Beyond ** all that, pay particular attention to the Miami-Pitt game and where each of those teams are in Tuesday’s CFP rankings. The Hurricanes could backdoor their way to Charlotte but need lots of help, so their best path remains as an at-large. None of the top 14 lost in Week 13 so we’ll see if there’s any movement on the Hurricanes inching closer to being directly compared to that Notre Dame team they beat in Week 1. Pitt would also be able to make it to the conference title game with a win over Miami and an SMU loss.
Games with CFP ImplicationsGeorgia vs. Georgia Tech, FridayMiami at Pitt, SaturdayVirginia Tech at Virginia, SaturdaySMU at Cal, SaturdayBig 12
All of the contenders for the Big 12 championship won this past weekend so we go to the final slate of games to figure out who makes it to Arlington, Texas, for the title game.
It’s very simple for Texas Tech: Beat West Virginia and the Red Raiders will make it to AT&T Stadium for the first time in school history. They remain on track to be a playoff team as well and may be in the best position of any team when it comes to their path in the postseason (hosting a Group of 5 team as the No. 5 seed and then potentially playing a quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl).
BYU is in a similar win-and-in position against UCF, which will be fighting for a sixth win to reach bowl eligibility. If the Cougars lose, there would be multiple teams with a 7–2 mark in conference play and either the Cougars or Arizona State could advance.
Then there’s Utah, which remarkably is also still alive after escaping on Saturday against Kansas State. The Utes don’t really have a path to make it to the Big 12 championship thanks to BYU’s win over Cincinnati but are high enough in the CFP rankings that their faint hopes for an at-large are still there. It will be fascinating to see if the committee drops them at all on Tuesday for that narrow win but being in the top 12 like they currently are still says you have a shot.
Games with CFP ImplicationsUtah at Kansas, FridayArizona at Arizona State, FridayTexas Tech at West Virginia, SaturdayUCF at BYU, SaturdayBig Ten
The most straightforward of conferences may well be the Big Ten.
Indiana is in the bracket no matter what happens in its final two games, a likely romp at in-state rival Purdue and the Big Ten championship game the following weekend. How impressive the Hoosiers are against the Boilermakers will likely only be a factor in ensuring a cushion within the top four seeds (and resulting bye to the quarterfinals) should they lose in Indianapolis to Ohio State.
As for Oregon, the Ducks head up to Seattle for a win-and-in scenario after topping USC by two scores for their most impressive win of the season. Beat rival Washington next Saturday and the Ducks will assuredly be hosting a first-round game in the playoff. Lose at Husky Stadium, and things will get dicey with regards to being in the bracket, much less any potential seeding. Tuesday’s rankings from the committee will be instructive on that.
Ohio State is also into the playoff no matter what happens the next few weeks and likely has locked up a top-four seed regardless of the result against Michigan in The Game next week. Things are far more interesting if Michigan wins at home against a team it seems to have a hex over lately. Should the Wolverines hold serve at the Big House, that would give them the best win of any team in the country with a pair of road losses to another team in the bracket (Oklahoma) and to another top 20 team in USC. At 10–2, that should be enough for an at-large bid but it could be a close debate with any number of SEC teams featuring the same record.
Michigan winning next week also would result in Oregon facing Indiana for the Big Ten title game. Given how banged up the Ducks are at the moment, that may not be a good thing but you can bet that Dan Lanning would love to notch back-to-back conference titles since joining the league if he could.
Games with CFP ImplicationsOhio State at Michigan, SaturdayIndiana at Purdue, SaturdayOregon at Washington, SaturdaySEC
There is plenty of drama in the SEC to come after the league largely abdicated its duties to have some compelling games during Week 13 (SoCon Saturday remains the best nickname for the annual FCS opponents that filter through the conference). All told, six of the SEC’s 10 games will carry some sort of playoff implications.
Oklahoma and Mississippi are both in win-and-in situations. The Sooners are hosting a lifeless LSU team but will need to put their best foot forward if they want to impress the committee. The Rebels are in a similar spot on the road at their bitter rivals for the Egg Bowl. Naturally, there is a ton of discussion around head coach Lane Kiffin, and we should find out on Tuesday just what kind of impact that could have on the program’s chances of hosting a playoff game at The Grove if they don’t move down after the off week.
Two other Black Friday games are of critical importance to the playoff. Georgia is in the field right now but can solidify its first-round bye with a win over Georgia Tech and potentially angle for a better CFP path involving the Orange Bowl and Peach Bowl should the Bulldogs win convincingly against the Yellow Jackets. The Aggies will clinch a berth in the SEC title game if they can beat Texas in Austin. Lose that one and A&M would still be in the CFP, but would likely fall out of the top four and send the Bulldogs to the championship game in their place.
That throws the focus over to two other important games on Saturday. You can start with Vanderbilt’s attempt to win 10 games for the first time in school history at in-state rival Tennessee. The Commodores are aiming to be the sixth SEC team in the field, which they may need some help to accomplish but can help convince the committee with a big win against the Vols (on top of likely sending QB Diego Pavia to New York for the Heisman).
Finally, there is the Iron Bowl. If Alabama can push aside some Jordan-Hare Stadium voodoo and win against Auburn, it will head to the SEC championship and likely punch its CFP ticket. Should the Tide lose and Texas A&M wins, then Georgia would play the Aggies for the conference title. If both Alabama and Texas A&M falter, then we would see a rematch between Ole Miss and Georgia.
Games with CFP ImplicationsOle Miss at Mississippi State, FridayGeorgia at Georgia Tech, FridayTexas A&M at Texas, FridayLSU at Oklahoma, SaturdayVanderbilt at Tennessee, SaturdayAlabama at Auburn, SaturdayNotre Dame
The Irish need to beat Stanford on Saturday night on the Farm to get into the playoff. Lose and they are out of the field. Tuesday’s rankings will determine if they have a shot to host another first-round game under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus if they could slide into the top eight (and likely ahead of Oklahoma).
Games with CFP ImplicationsNotre Dame at Stanford, SaturdayGroup of 5
The chase for the Group of 5 bid is extremely compelling going into the final weekend.
For simplicity’s sake, you can start with James Madison’s trip to Coastal Carolina. The Dukes have already locked up hosting duties for the Sun Belt title game and remain in the hunt for the CFP berth should they win out after coming back to beat Washington State on Saturday. They will need to convincingly win against the Chanticleers to even have a chance of making it high enough in the CFP rankings to overcome a strong set of teams from the American but, if they are ranked this Tuesday, they have a chance.
Things are less straightforward in the American, where Tulane, Navy and North Texas all have one loss in league standings and haven’t played each other this season. Based on tiebreakers, the CFP standings will have a massive bearing on who makes the league title game and who hosts.
Right now, Tulane is the only Group of 5 team ranked. The Green Wave beat Temple on the road on Saturday. If the Green Wave’s ranking holds on Tuesday, they would be in line to host the American championship game with a win in Week 14.
The same holds true for North Texas. The Mean Green are not ranked by the committee but are by AP voters and could very well be a Top 25 team come Tuesday’s rankings show. If they are in the committee’s rankings and beat Temple on Friday night, then they would be in the conference title game as well. If they win and Tulane loses, then the location of the game would shift to Denton, Texas, the following Friday night.
Then there is the case of Navy, which plays on Thanksgiving against Memphis. The Midshipmen remain alive to make the championship game but would either need to be ranked above either the Green Wave or Mean Green in the committee’s rankings on Tuesday or have one of those two teams lose a game.
Games with CFP ImplicationsNavy at Memphis, ThursdayTemple at North Texas, FridayJames Madison at Coastal Carolina, SaturdayCharlotte at Tulane, Saturday
