We’re approaching the midway point of the NFL season.
For some teams, that means making a move up the standings. The Rams, Vikings, Packers and Commanders are all NFC teams who some believed in this preseason, yet currently have losing records. Minnesota has been surging lately, but can it continue? Green Bay hopes not.
In the AFC, the Jaguars and Steelers have a pivotal showdown in the Steel City, a game that could have playoff implications from a tiebreaker standpoint. Then there’s the rematch between the Dolphins and Patriots, with Miami looking to sweep the season series and further bury New England in the AFC East.
So what will determine those games and all the others? We break it all down.
Los Angeles Rams (3–4) at Dallas Cowboys (4–2)
Key matchup: Matthew Stafford against the Cowboys’ secondary
The Rams have been willing and able to throw downfield this season. Stafford has an average depth of target of 8.6 yards, seventh-most in the league. This jives with Los Angeles ranking second in air yards (1,159), behind only the Vikings.
Yet the Cowboys have been excellent at forcing teams to go underneath. Dallas has surrendered only 552 air yards, with the Browns being the only team to better that figure.
Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook in Colorado, Michigan and Virginia
Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
Minnesota Vikings (3–4) at Green Bay Packers (2–4)
Key matchup: Minnesota’s blitzing against Jordan Love
Both the Packers and Vikings are desperate to win, with each knowing a victory puts them in second place in the NFC North. Sunday’s tilt may come down to whether Love can quickly unload the ball.
Love averages 2.5 seconds in the pocket per dropback this season. Only four qualifying quarterbacks hold the ball longer. The Vikings will speed him up with their league-high blitz rate of 50.8%.
Atlanta Falcons (4–3) at Tennessee Titans (2–4)
Key matchup: The Titans’ red-zone offense against Atlanta
Tennessee is likely without quarterback Ryan Tannehill this weekend, making any red-zone trips all the more important. The last 20 yards have been tough for the Titans all season, as they rank tied for 30th (33.3%) in that area.
On the other side, the Falcons have been tough defensively inside their own 20-yard line. Atlanta checks in fifth at 38.9%, forcing many field goal attempts.
New Orleans Saints (3–4) at Indianapolis Colts (3–4)
Key matchup: Saints’ return game against the Colts’ punt coverage
New Orleans has struggled at times to get the offense going in the first year of Derek Carr’s tenure under center. However, the Saints have done a nice job getting good field position through punt returns. They average 18.3 yards per chance, second-best in football.
Conversely, the Colts have been susceptible to good returns, allowing 178 punt-return yards, tied for fifth-most in the NFL. On a per-return basis, the ranking improves to 12th-best at 10.5 yards.
