The Bills are favored by 8.5 vs. the Buccaneers for this week’s game. Despite being upset by the Patriots on Sunday, SI Sportsbook still believes the Bills will win by a large margin. Perhaps some of that advantage has to do with the fact that Baker Mayfield popped up on the injury report early in the week. Though most expect Baker to play, we don’t have many player props for the Buccaneers as of Wednesday morning. However, there are still a few early values I like in this primetime game.
Dalton Kincaid over 36.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kincaid led all Bills receivers on Sunday with 75 yards and saw a season-high eight targets. With news that Dawson Knox will be having wrist surgery, Kincaid should pick up some extra routes on Thursday. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 45 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Gabe Davis longest reception over 20.5 (-110)
Davis is the deep threat for Buffalo and he’s exceeded this prop in five of seven games played this season, though he has missed it in his last two. Guess what else the last two games also had in common? Buffalo lost one and nearly lost the other. If they want to get back on track, I’d like to see a deep ball or two to Davis. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I believe Allen will want to be aggressive in a get-right game on Thursday. In five out of six games played, the Bucs have allowed at least two receivers per game a gain of 20-plus yards.
Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards (-110)
Let’s face it: Rachaad White has been underwhelming this season. He’s averaging only 3.2 yards per attempt, and he’s only exceeded this prop twice this season — one of those times was vs. the Bears. The Bills are allowing an average of 100 yards per game to opposing runners, but with Chase Edmonds practicing in full on Monday, the Bucs may have one more running back to rotate in if White gets off to a tough start. Add that to the fact that the Bills are favored by 8.5, and White will likely be out of the game script.
