The betting line for Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings has shifted back and forth without settling on a favorite.
As of late Thursday, the Vikings were set as one-point home underdogs by some sportsbooks. Earlier in the day, the Packers were a one-point road underdog at the same sportsbooks. A handful of prominent sportsbooks in Las Vegas had the Week 17 matchup as a pick’em, including the Circa, South Point, Golden Nugget, Station Casinos and Westgate Superbook.
I reached out to Jay Kornegay, the recently retired oddsmaker of the Westgate Superbook, for an explanation as to why the Vikings weren’t laying the standard three points for being the home team. The Vikings should be getting more support at the sportsbooks because they beat the Packers in Green Bay in Week 4, they are tied for the second-best record in the league at 13–2 and have the longest active winning streak in the league at eight games.
“Most of our big plays have been on Green Bay,” says Kornegay, who now contributes on the marketing side for the Westgate. “The Packers are also getting the majority of the recreational play. We do anticipate some Minnesota money closer to kick-off.”
The public, sharps and oddsmakers agree that the Packers (11–4) are better than the Vikings (13–2) with two games left in the regular season. Kornegay mentioned that Green Bay is ranked ahead of Minnesota in the Westgate’s NFL power rankings. I don’t agree with that and would take the Vikings based on what they've shown most of the season. But I can see why most side with the Packers, even though they’re 0–4 this season against the big boys of the NFC (Detroit Lions twice, Philadelphia Eagles and Vikings).
The Vikings’ early signature wins don’t look as pretty in Week 17. They beat the Packers with a rusty Jordan Love, who returned from a two-game absence due to a knee injury in Brazil in Week 1 vs. the Eagles. Beating the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Packers in three consecutive games early in the season might be the Vikings’ three best wins of the year. But the Texans could be the worst playoff team in the league and the 49ers were eliminated from postseason contention last week.
Also, Minnesota sweated until the end last week vs. the Seattle Seahawks, a team the Packers beat by three scores the prior week. And the Vikings went 0–2 against the Lions and Rams, another team the Packers cruised against this season.
But I’ve seen enough from Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to know he won’t completely melt against top opponents. Darnold didn’t just accidentally throw for 3,776 yards and 32 touchdowns and stumbled on a season passer rating of 105.4. He’s actually been better than Love and that’s partly because he has better weapons. I’ll take the home team with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and a ferocious defense.
Before we continue discussing the other games for this weekend, here’s some info on what took place at the sportsbooks for the two Christmas Day games. I was surprised to hear the Westgate Superbook wasn’t a loser with the two favorites dominating—the Kansas City Chiefs crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens embarrassed the Texans.
The Westgate benefited from the under hitting on the 46 total line for Chiefs vs. Steelers. And they can thank the Steelers’ diehard national fan base for not taking a loss on Christmas Day.
“We actually split the two Christmas NFL games,” Kornegay says. “We did O.K. on the Chiefs and under as there was legit support on the Steelers. The second game was a small loser. We just didn’t write that many tickets on the Texans. Overall, it was a small winning day for us.”
As a reminder, stop betting on your favorite team on a weekly basis. Even Chiefs fans, though suddenly the back-to-back Super Bowl champions have covered the spread in three consecutive games. They went from a seven-game losing streak against the spread to playing like a team destined to become the first ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
All right, let’s get to the rest of the Week 17 games.
Manzano’s NFL Week 17 Betting Tips
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Stick with the trend: Bengals (-3.5) vs. Broncos
I’m riding with the Cincinnati Bengals’ trend of covering against the non-good teams. Yes, I understand the Denver Broncos have a winning record. I’m just not convinced they’re a good team. The Broncos have taken care of business against the bad teams, but they’re 2–6 vs. teams with a winning record currently. I also don’t think Bo Nix and his offense can keep pace with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the other explosive players on the Bengals, who have covered the past three weeks vs. the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns.
Enticing Bet: Lions (-3.5 ) at 49ers
I worry about the Lions’ shorthanded defense against a 49ers team that will likely have plenty of pride playing at home in a meaningless game. This was supposed to be a massive game when the schedules were released in May. But the Lions won’t underestimate the 49ers and look ahead to their Week 18 showdown against the Vikings, which could decide the NFC North if Minnesota handles Green Bay on Sunday. Expect Detroit to pull away in the fourth quarter of this matchup.
Moneyline Dog: Cowboys (+245) at Eagles
I gotta say I felt much better about this risky dog bet before the Cowboys announced that CeeDee Lamb will be shut down for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. But I’ll keep this bet because there’s a chance Eagles QB Jalen Hurts misses this game due to the concussion he sustained last week against the Washington Commanders.
Not So Risky: Chargers (-4) at Patriots
The Los Angeles Chargers have a thin offense, but the duo of Justin Herbert and rookie Ladd McConkey should be enough to get by the struggling New England Patriots. Also, it could be a long day for rookie quarterback Drake Maye against one of the better defenses in the league.
Stay Away: Dolphins (-6.5) at Browns
I want no part of the Miami Dolphins during a late December game in a cold city. I get the Browns aren’t very good and the weather shouldn’t be that bad with a forecast of 54 degrees and some rain, but that’s too many points to lay for a team that can’t win away from home in the winter months.
Parlay: Panthers (+8) at Buccaneers; Cardinals (+6.5) at Rams; Lions (-3.5) at 49ers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers burned me last week against the Cowboys and the Carolina Panthers came through with a cover at home against the Arizona Cardinals. But this is not just about last week’s results. The Panthers have a stout offensive line, they can run the football and Bryce Young has played well lately. I’m worried about the Cardinals losing their starting tackles, but I’ll take a chance on a close game between divisional rivals. And I’m counting on the Lions flexing their muscles vs. a 49ers squad that struggled in Miami last week.
Best Over/Under Total: Falcons-Commanders (over 47.5, -112)
I’m done taking the under with total bets. I’m expecting fireworks between rookie Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. for .
